superforecaster
nounEtymology From super + forecaster.
1
One who consistently makes predictions at significantly better than chance accuracy.
- On average, when a forecaster did well enough in year 1 to become a superforecaster, and was put on a superforecaster team in year 2, that person became 50% more accurate.2015, Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, →ISBN, page 205:
- An important lesson taught by the gaming approach to warfare is that the superforecaster must be always open to 'unknown unknowns', to use the decision-theoretic jargon popularized by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war.2018, Steve Fuller, Post-Truth: Knowledge As A Power Game, →ISBN:
1 more example
- The superforecasters turned out to outperform the other contestants by a substantial margin in the second and third years of the tournament, that is, they were not just lucky.2018, Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen, Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life, →ISBN, page 51: